Resolution No. 97721
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RESOLUTION NO. 9772
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF
VERNON APPROVING AND ADOPTING THE DEMAND FORECAST
FOR 2009, PLANNING RESERVE MARGIN AND QUALIFYING
CAPACITY CRITERIA
WHEREAS, the City of Vernon (the "City") is a chartered
municipal corporation of the State of California that owns and operates
a system for the generation, purchase, transmission, distribution and
sale of electric capacity and energy; and
WHEREAS, the City provides electricity to consumers at retail
from its distribution system, which is located within its municipal
boundaries; and
WHEREAS, the City has executed a Metered Subsystem Agreement
("MSS Agreement") with the California Independent System Operator
("CAISO"); and �
WHEREAS, the City is considered a Load Serving Entity ("LSE")
junder certain terms of the CAISO's Tariff; and
WHEREAS, on March 13, 2006, the CAISO submitted an amendment
to the CAISO Tariff which created an Interim Reliability Requirements
Program (the "IRR Program"); and
WHEREAS, the IRR Program requires each LSE to prepare a plan
(a "Resource Adequacy Plan") to ensure it possesses sufficient reserves
to meet reliability criteria established by the Western Electricity
Coordinating Council for the CAISO's transmission control area; and
WHEREAS, under the IRR Program, the City is empowered to
establish a Demand Forecast, a Reserve Margin and Qualifying Capacity
Criteria upon which to base its Resource Adequacy Plan; and
WHEREAS, the IRR Program is expected to remain effective
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until the implementation of the CAISO's Market Redesign and Technology
Upgrade ("MRTU") Tariff, which the CAISO filed on February 9, 2006, but,
has not yet become effective; and
WHEREAS, the Resource Adequacy provisions set forth in
Section 40 of the current draft of the MRTU Tariff are expected to
supersede the requirements of the IRR Program at such time as the MRTU
Tariff becomes effective; and
WHEREAS, the Resource Adequacy provisions of the MRTU Tariff
require LSEs to establish monthly and annual Resource Adequacy Plans;
and
WHEREAS, the Resource Adequacy provisions of the MRTU Tariff
empower the City to establish a Demand Forecast, a Reserve Margin and
Qualifying Capacity Criteria upon which to base its Resource Adequacy
Plans; and
WHEREAS, the City has reviewed the historical and expected
demand for and supplies of electricity within its distribution system,
including the likely peak demand for electricity within the City's
distribution system throughout 2009, the available generation and other
capacity to serve that demand, and constraints which might impact the
availability of capacity to serve the City's projected peak demand; and
WHEREAS, based upon that review, the City finds that the.
default 15% Reserve Margin set forth in both the IRR Program and the
Resource Adequacy provisions of the MRTU Tariff is sufficient for
planning purposes; and
WHEREAS, based upon that review, the City finds that the peak
demand for electricity within the City's distribution system throughout
2009 is likely to experience load growth of approximately 1.0o as
compared to the same months of the prior year; and
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WHEREAS, based upon that review, the City finds that the
Qualifying Capacity Criteria specified in the City of Vernon Demand
Forecast for 2009, Planning Reserve Margin and Qualifying Capacity
Criteria are sufficient and appropriate to be used in determining the
amount of Qualifying Capacity needed to meet the City's projected peak
monthly demand and 15% Reserve Margin.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE
CITY OF VERNON AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1: The City Council of the City of Vernon hereby
finds and determines that the recitals contained hereinabove are true
land correct.
SECTION 2: The City Council of the City of Vernon hereby
approves and adopts the Demand Forecast, Reserve Margin and Qualifying
Capacity Criteria set forth in the City of -Vernon Demand Forecast for
2009, Planning Reserve Margin and Qualifying Capacity Criteria,
together with Exhibits 1 through 5 attached thereto, in substantially
the same form as the copy which is attached hereto as Exhibit A and
incorporated by reference.
SECTION 3: The City Council of the City of Vernon hereby
authorizes the Light & Power Department to utilize the Demand Forecast,
Reserve Margin and Qualifying Capacity Criteria set forth in the City of
Vernon Demand Forecast for 2009, Planning Reserve Margin and Qualifying
Capacity Criteria in preparing the Resource Adequacy Plans, whether
pursuant to the IRR Program or the MRTU Tariff if it is implemented,
for the calendar year 2009; provided, however, that if there is a
significant change in the current year -over -year growth trend for
monthly peak demand, or if other information comes to the attention of
the Light & Power Department that warrants a change in the Demand
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Forecast, the Light & Power Department may amend the Demand Forecast by
not more than ten percent (100) as long as the City Council is notified
of such amendment at least fifteen (15) days before any Resource
Adequacy Plan is submitted to the CAISO, any other entity, or any
person not employed by the City.
SECTION 4: The City Council of the City of Vernon hereby
authorizes the Light & Power Department to continue to use such Reserve
Margin -and Qualifying Capacity Criteria in preparing all subsequent
Resource Adequacy Plans, whether pursuant to the IRR Program or the
MRTU tariff if it is implemented, for the City's electricity
distribution system until such time as the City Council shall
affirmatively amend or suspend such Reserve Margin and/or Qualifying
Capacity Criteria by further Resolution.
SECTION 5: The City Council of the City of Vernon hereby
authorizes the Light & Power Department to submit Resource Adequacy
Plans prepared in conformity herewith to the CAISO on a monthly,
seasonal and/or annual basis as requested by CAISO, whether those plans
are required pursuant to the IRR Program or the MRTU Tariff if it is
implemented.
SECTION 6: The City Clerk of the City of Vernon shall
certify to the passage of this resolution, and thereupon and thereafter
the same shall be in full force and effect.
APPROVED AND ADOPTED this 24th day of November, 2008.
A7z&�
ANUELA GIRO , ty Clerk
Name: Leonis C. Malburg
Title: Mayor /
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STATE OF CALIFORNIA )
ss
COUNTY OF LOS ANGELES )
I, MANU-ELA GIRON, City Clerk of the City of Vernon, do hereby
certify that the foregoing Resolution, being Resolution No. 9772, was
duly adopted by the City Council of the City of Vernon at a regular
meeting of the City Council duly held on Monday, November 24, 2008, and
thereafter was duly signed by the Mayor or Mayor Pro-Tem of the City of
Vernon.
(SEAL)
MANUELA GI N City Clerk
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EXHIBIT A
City of Vernon
Light & Power Department
Demand Forecast for 2009
Planning Reserve Margin
And
Qualifying Capacity Criteria
Background:
On March 13, 2006, the CAISO submitted an amendment to the CAISO Tariff to establish
the Interim Reliability Requirements Program ("IRR Program"), which the CAISO proposes
to remain effective until the implementation of the Market Redesign and Technology
Upgrade ("MRTU") Tariff, which the CAISO filed on February 9, 2006. The CAISO's IRR
Program is a short-term proposal to implement the Resource Adequacy programs being
adopted by state authorities, including the California Public Utilities Commission ("CPUC")
and other Local Regulatory Authorities. The Resource Adequacy provisions set forth in
Section 40 of the current draft of the MRTU Tariff are expected to supersede the
requirements of the IRR Program at such time as the MRTU Tariff becomes effective: The
IRR Program or Section 40 of the current draft of the MRTU Tariff require that the
Scheduling Coordinators for Load Serving Entities submit annual Resource Adequacy Plans
consistent with approved Demand Forecast, Planning Reserve Margin and the Qualifying
Capacity criteria as approved by the Local Regulatory Authority. Therefore, the City
Council of the City of Vernon as the Local Regulatory Authority needs to establish (1) the
Demand Forecast for Vernon's load, (2) the Reserve Margin for planning purposes, and (3)
the criteria for determining resources that would be eligible to provide Qualifying Capacity
and for calculating Qualifying Capacity.
On April 10, 2006, the City Council adopted a Demand Forecast for Vernon's load for the
period June through December, 2006, a 15% Reserve Margin for planning purposes, and
criteria for determining eligible resources and calculating Qualifying Capacity. On October
4, 2006, the City Council adopted a Demand Forecast for 2007 and confirmed the Reserve
Margin and Qualifying Criteria. Vernon needs now to adopt a Demand Forecast for 2009,
and to review the Reserve Margin and Qualifying Capacity criteria. Pursuant to Vernon's
Metered Subsystems Agreement ("MSS") with CAISO, the new Demand Forecast, Reserve
Margin and Qualifying Capacity criteria for 2009 must be provided to CAISO as soon as
possible.l
If the City Council does not establish the criteria for Qualifying Capacity the CAISO proposes to
impose its default criteria reflected in the CAISO proposed section 40.13 of the CAISO Tariff.
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Staff has compiled a Demand Forecast for 2009 based upon historical load data and
projections as to future load growth, as set forth below. Staff also recommends that Vernon
retain the same 15% Reserve Margin for planning purposes and the criteria for determining
eligible resources and calculating Qualifying Capacity. Vernon will then be responsible for
periodically providing the CAISO with a required Resource Adequacy Plan that takes into
account the established new`Demand Forecast, the Planning Reserve Margin, and the
Resource Adequacy criteria established by the City Council.
Demand Forecast:
Vernon's municipal load resides within the CAISO control area. The CAISO, as the control
area operator, has the responsibility for meeting reliability criteria established by the Western
Electricity Coordinating Council ("WECC"). As such the CAISO has entered into
agreements with various market participants including, but not limited to, Generators,
Scheduling Coordinators, Participating Transmission Owners, Utility Distribution
Companies, and Metered Subsystems ("MSS"), which impose certain responsibilities on
parties to establish a reliable system. One of those responsibilities is to have operating
reserves that meet the WECC minimum requirements.
The CAISO's goal in considering reserve requirements is to balance available capacity with
demand across the entire CAISO control area and, therefore, CAISO's primary concern is
with the time and amount of peak demand on the CAISO-controlled transmission system (the
"system peak"). In order to reduce demand during the period of the system peak (and,
therefore, to lower the peak demand on the transmission system), utilities generally offer
retail rate structures designed to encourage load shifting away from the on -peak period. Such
efforts are intended to achieve on -peak demand reduction and lower the need to build new
generation to meet peak demand. Vernon has adopted such a rate structure and has
succeeded in shifting the peak demand period for Vernon's system to a time that is generally
earlier than the time of the CAISO system peak.
Vernon's share of needed capacity to meet CAISO control area requirements may be
established by determining the amount of Vernon's load that contributes to the CAISO
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system peak. The Demand Forecast (forecast of Vernon's coincidental peak demand relative
to the CAISO monthly peak demand) for Vernon is developed by first forecasting Vernon's
peak load for each month without regard to the time of day, and then applying a coincidental
peak factor to reflect the portion of Vernon's peak load that contributes to the CAISO's
control area peak demand. The monthly Demand Forecast is, therefore, the monthly product
of Vernon System peak demand forecast and the coincidental peak factor as further
described below.
1. Monthly peak load forecast for 2009
The proposed monthly peak demand forecast was developed based on the analysis of
Vernon's historical load growth. Vernon has experienced an average increase in Peak
Demand of 1 % (Exhibit 5) in the last five years.
Therefore, Vernon's projected peals demand is based on a 1% load growth. The resulting
projected peak demand for Vernon is shown below in Table 1.
Table 1
Projected
Load
2009"
MW
January
189.09
February
'194.51
March
195.11
April
199.22
May
197.66
June
202.30
July
202.06
August
205.82
September
200.68
October
200.62
November
200.68
December
194.67
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2. Establish coincidental peak factor
The coincidental peak factor is the ratio between Vernon's demand at the time of the
CAISO control area's peak demand and Vernon's peak demand for the month. The
coincidental peak factor is established based on last year's actual load data. The
CAISO's peak demand was obtained through the CAISO's OASIS online system.
Exhibit 2 reflects the date and time that the CAISO control area established its monthly
peak demand for November 2007 through October 2008. Vernon's demand for those
hours was acquired from Vernon's records and used to develop the coincidental peak
factor as shown in Exhibit 3.
3. Vernon's Demand Forecast
Vernon Demand Forecast is the product of Vernon's peak demand and the coincidental
peak factor. The product reflects Vernon's projected demand at the time of the CAISO
control area's peak for each of the individual months. Exhibits 1 and 4 provide the
calculation of Vernon's projected Demand Forecast for the period of January through
December 2009.
It is recommended that the Demand Forecast contained in Exhibit 4 and as shown below
in Table 2 be approved.
Table 2
Demand
Forecast
2009
MW
January
163.2
February
155.6
March
149.3
April
187.8
May
178.2
June
186.0
July
178.9
61
August
177.3
September
181.3
October
175.9
November
172.9
December
165.2
Planning Reserve Requirement
It is recommended that a Reserve Margin of 15% be adopted for planning purposes as set
forth in section 40.4 (c) of the filed CAISO Tariff.
Qualifying Capacity:
It is recommended that the following criteria be approved for determining the type of
resources that may be eligible to provide Qualifying Capacity and for calculating Qualifying
Capacity for such eligible resource types.
The two existing power supply contracts through the WSPP Agreement Schedule C
"firm that were entered into in 2000 and 2008 shall be eligible to count as
Qualifying Capacity through 2010. The amount of Qualifying Capacity is 50 MW.
2. Vernon Purchase Power Contract with SCPPA for 4.9% of SCPPA's share of Palo
Verde Nuclear Generating Station (Palo Verde) shall be eligible as Qualifying
Capacity. The power is scheduled as an import generally at Westwing Substation
through the CAISO's entitlement of transmission "from Westwing to SP-15.
3. Contract NO DE-MS65-86WP39587 between United States Department of Energy
Western Area Power Administration Boulder Canyon Project and City of Vernon,
California for Electric Service shall be eligible to count as Qualifying Capacity. The
power is scheduled as an import at Mead Substation generally through the CAISO's
entitlement of transmission from Mead Substation to SP-15. The amount of
Qualifying Capacity will be based on the most current schedule for the available
on
capacity from the Boulder Canyon Project at the time of submittal of the Resource
Adequacy Plan.
4. Generating units and system units (but excluding Vernon diesel generating units)
within Vernon's MSS, as reflected in Schedule 14 of Vernon's MSS' Agreement with
CAI,SO shall be eligible to count as Qualifying Capacity. The amount of Qualifying
Capacity of such units will be based on the projected dependable gross output
capacity on a day when the ambient air temperature is 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
5. All other capacity from a Participating Generator, a System Unit, or a System
Resource, as defined in the CAISO Tariff, shall be eligible as Qualifying Capacity.
System Resources, however, must have a firm transmission path from source to the
CAISO control area. Such criteria for firm transmission facilities over the CAISO
control area can be satisfied with the possession of a Firm Transmission Right from
the CAISO on the path associated with the System Resource. Firm Transmission
Rights provide physical priority right to schedule over congested paths.
6. The following scheduled outage criteria should be used for determining the level of
Qualifying Capacity ("QC") of any resource.
Scheduled Outages
Time Period
Description of How Qualifying Capacity of Resources Is Counted
Summer
Any month where days of scheduled outages exceed 25% of days in the
May
month, the resource cannot be counted as Qualifying Capacity. If
through
scheduled outages are less than or equal to 25% of the days in the
September
month, the resource is counted as Qualifying Capacity.
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For scheduled outages of less than 1 week, the resource is counted as
Qualifying Capacity.
Non -Summer For scheduled outages of 1 week to 2 weeks, the Qualifying Capacity of
Months the resource is prorated using the formula:
October [ 1 - (days of scheduled outage/days in month) - 0.25] * MW = QC
through The formula will allow resources to be counted at between 50% and
April 25 /o of what would otherwise be their Qualifying Capacity.
For scheduled outages over 2 weeks, the resource cannot be counted as
Conclusion:
1. Recommend approval of the following Demand Forecast for 2009 as follows:
Demand
Forecast
2009
MW
January
163.2
February
155.6
March
149.3
April
187.8
May
178.2
June
186.0
July
178.9
August
177.3
September
181.3
October
175.9
November
172.9
December
165.2
2. Recommend approval of a 15% Reserve Margin for planning purposes.
3. Recommend approval of the above stated Qualifying Capacity Criteria.
EXHIBIT I
Exhibit 1
January through December 2009 Projected Load
Month
2007-2008
(Actual City
Peak Load)
2009
Projected
Load
(A)
(B)
(C)
1
January '08
187.21
189.09
2
February '08
192.59
194.51
3
March '08
193.18
195.11
4
April '08
197.25
199.22
5
Ma '08
195.70
197.66
6
June'08
200.30
202.30
7
July'08
200.06
202.06
8
August'08
203.78
205.82
9
September'08
198.69
200.68
10
October'08
198.64
200.62
11
November'07
198.69
200.68
12
December'07
192.741
194.67
A Month
B Source: (City Historical Peak Load Data)
C 1% Projected Load Growth for Vernon
EXHIBIT 2
Exhibit 2
ISO Historical Peak Demand
Hour Ending
Load
(A)
(B)
(C)
1
14-Nov-2007
1800
32,552
2
17-Dec-2007
1800
34,067
3
24-Jan-2008
1800
33,155
4
4-Feb-2008
1900
31,926
5
24-Mar-2008
2000
30,482
6
28-Apr-2008
1600
35,867
7
16-Ma -2008
1600
41,540
8
20-Jun-2008
1700
46,789
9
8-Jul-2008
1600
44,660
10
29-Au -2008
1600
44,620
11
5-Sep-2008
1600
44,257
121
1-Oct-2008
1 16001
41,597
A ISO OASIS
B ISO OASIS
C ISO OASIS
EXHIBIT 3
Exhibit 3
November 2007 through October 2008 Coincidental Peak
Factor
Month
Vernon's
Peak
Load
Coincidental
Peak during
ISO's Peak
Demand
Coincidental
Peak Factor
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
1
January '08
187.21
161.55
86.3%
2
February '08
192.59
154.03
80.0%
3
March '08
193.18
147.78
76.5%
4
April '08
197.25
185.94
94.3%
5
Ma '08
195.70
' 176.45
90.2%
6
June'08
200.30
184.18
92.0%
7
Jul '08
200.06
177.12
88.5%
8
August'08
203.78
175.53
86.1%
9
September'08
198.69
179.50
90.3%
10
October'08
198.64
174.12
87.7%
11
November'07
198.69
171.14
86.1%
12
December'07
192.74
163.57
84.9%
A Month
B Source: (City Historical Peak Load Data)
C Source: (City Historical Peak Load Data)
D Quotient of Columns C and B (C/B)
EXHIBIT 4
Exhibit 4
January through December 2009 Resource Adequacy Requirement
Projected
Load
Coincidental
Peak Factor
Demand
Forecast
RA Capacity
Requirement
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E)
1
January
189.1
86.3%
163.2
187.6
2
February
194.5
80.0%
155.6
178.9
3
March
195.1
76.5%
149.3
171.6
4
April
199.2
94.3%
187.8
216.0
5
May
197.7
90.2%
178.2
204.9
6
June
202.3
92.0%
186.0
213.9
7
July
202.1
88.5%
178.9
205.7
8
August
205.8
86.1 %
177.3
203.9
9
September
200.7
90.3%
181.3
208.5
10
October
200.6
87.7%
175.9
202.2
11
November
200.7
86.1 %
172.9
198.8
12
December
194.7
84.9%
165.2
190.0
A Month
B Source: (Exhibit 1 Column C)
C Source: (Exhibit 3 Column D)
D Product of B and C
E Product of D and 115% (115% reflects Planning Reserve Margin)
EXHIBIT 5
Exhibit 5
Seven year Peak Demand Load Growth
Peak
% Increase
(A)
(B)
(C)
1
2004
195.9
2
2005
190.8
-2.618%
31
2006
197.3
3.400%
4
2007
206.3
4.571 %
5
2008
203.8
-1.225%
6
Average
1 198.81
1.0%
A Year
B Source: (City Historical Peak Load Data)
C % Increase from previous year.
CITY CLERK'S OFFICE
INTEROFFICE MEMORANDUM
DATE: November 25, 2008
TO: Donal O'Callaghan, Director of Light & Power
FROM Nelly Giron, City Clerk
RE: Resolution No. 9772 - A Resolution of the City Council of
the City of Vernon Approving and Adopting the Demand
Forecast for 2009, Planning Reserve Margin and Qualifying
Capacity Criteria
Transmitted herewith is a copy of Resolution No. 9772 referenced
above, which was approved by City Council on November 24, 2008.
Thank you.
NG:dr
c: Resolution No. 9772
November 24, 2008
Resource Adequacy Staff Report
Interim Reliability Requirement Program (IRR Program) is the CAISO's short-
term proposal to implement the Resource Adequacy program being adopted by state
authorities. This program is in place until the implementation of MRTU (Market
Redesign and Technology Upgrade). The Resource Adequacy provisions set forth in
Section 40 of the current draft of the MRTU Tariff are expected to supersede the
requirements of the IRR Program at such time as the MRTU Tariff becomes effective.
The IRR Program or Section 40 of the current draft of the MRTU Tariff require that
Scheduling Coordinators of Load Serving Entities submit the following as approved by
the Local Regulatory Authority:
1) Demand Forecast
2) Planning Reserve Margin,
3) The Qualifying Capacity approved by the Local Regulatory Authority.
The City Council of the City of Vernon as the Local Regulatory Authority for Vernon has
in the last three years approved a Demand Forecast, 15 % Reserve Margin, and the
criteria for determining eligible resources and calculating Qualifying Capacity.
The Light and Power Department recommends approval of the Demand Forecast for
2009; approval of a 15% Planning Reserve Margin; and, approval of the Qualifying
Capacity Criteria:
Also for informational purposes, attached is an excel spreadsheet entitled "Annual
Resource Adequacy Plan 2009," a format the CAISO requested we use to summarize
Vernon's Resource Adequacy Report and submit with the Council approved report.
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